How we score “How close”

LAST SCORED: 19 October 2026 · EDITORIAL ESTIMATES

Reviewed 19 Oct 2026, editorial estimates

Every idea on the Reality Map and in the magazine gets one number: How close: NN%. Higher means closer to real. 0% is pure fiction; 100% means it's here and in ordinary use. The scores are editorial estimates: informed judgement calls, not measurements, and they will change as the world does.

One number, one source

All scores live in a single data file (data/ideas.json). That one file drives the position of each idea on the map, the How close bars, the magazine's readiness index and the embeddable widget, so they can never disagree. The ring an idea sits on is worked out from its percentage, never set by hand.

How the map is drawn

On the Reality Map, distance from the “Reality” sun comes from the same percentage. The scale is gently compressed (radius grows with (100 − score) to the power 0.7) so the crowded inner rings get a little more room. Order is always preserved: a higher score is always closer to the centre. Hover any ring for its range.

The rings

The checklist behind each score

Each score comes with a short “why” checklist: things that are demonstrably true today (✓) and the big gaps that remain (✗). We weigh roughly these questions:

• Has the core effect been shown at all, even in a lab?
• Is there a working prototype outside the lab?
• Is it used by ordinary people, at a reasonable cost?
• Does it do what the fiction promised, or a much narrower version?
• Are the remaining problems engineering (hard) or physics (maybe impossible)?

History and forecasts

The Reality Map's time slider runs from 2016 to 2036. Positions before the scoring date are editorial history estimates: our best reconstruction of where an idea stood, made in hindsight. Positions after it are labelled forecast on screen and drawn with dashed lines. Forecasts are illustrations of a plausible trend, not predictions we'd bet on.

“Predicted by”

Where a classic story clearly put a date on an idea, we note the work, the year it came out and the year it imagined. We only list ones we're confident about; most ideas have none listed, and that's deliberate.

The Aussie angle

Each idea has a short note on how it connects to Australia. Notes stay general and avoid naming companies or people; places are named only where a source backs them up. Where we couldn't find a source, the note says so plainly.

Fact-check and corrections

Scores, “predicted by” entries and Aussie notes were checked against sources on 19 October 2026. Corrections go into one corrections file that the build applies on top of the scores, so every change keeps its source and reason. Items that are likely to change soon carry a re-check date.

All current scores

Method: scores are editorial estimates